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With nine goals in his initial seven league matches, Pep Guardiola's attacker Erling Haaland has begun the season in spectacular form.

While it is not his best start to a season - he registered 11 strikes in his first seven games in the 2022-23 season and double digits last year - it nevertheless places him with a three-goal lead in the early running for this term's Premier League Golden Boot.

The reality that zero of his nine conversions have been from the penalty spot makes it even more impressive.

Haaland's Distinct Advantage

Naturally, physical problems might significantly impact in the destination of the Golden Boot, but there are two reasons why Haaland is such a strong favourite for the award so early in the season.

Firstly, the total of conversions he has currently registered - and, just as importantly, the number and quality of chances he is getting.

Secondly, the sluggish beginning his regular challengers for the award have made.

xG Statistical Breakdown

A footballer's xG statistic (xG) indicates how many goals a top-flight footballer has typically netted from the quantity and caliber of opportunities he's received.

This doesn't represent a statistic haphazardly selected by statistics boffins, but by historical Premier League data.

Upon reviewing at players' xG in the Premier League so far this season from regular situations, the Scandinavian attacker is obtaining considerably more good opportunities to find the net than anyone else.

Indeed, even if Haaland were no better at converting opportunities than anyone else in the competition, he would nevertheless have converted more than twice as many goals as all other players.

Opportunity Analysis

This is illustrated by examining the number and quality of opportunities that footballers have received in the Premier League so far.

Haaland has taken 29 shots so far this campaign, 12 more than every other footballer.

That is actually not particularly unusual for him - he had actually taken more non-spot-kick efforts at this juncture in the previous two campaigns (30 in last season and 34 in the 2024-25 campaign).

What is, however exceptional even for Haaland is the quality of chances he has had this campaign. His shots have had an expected goals rating of 0.27 per attempt.

This statistic indicates is that players have historically converted the attempts he's taken at a 27% success ratio.

Among footballers attempting at minimum ten attempts, only Blues playmaker Enzo Fernandez has had more straightforward opportunities to score on average - because of a couple of tap-ins against West Ham and Brighton.

City striker's xG statistic of 0.27 per shot is much higher than the 0.17 expected goals per effort he had at the beginning of the previous campaign.

To summarize, the opportunities he has had in the current season have been considerably more favorable to find the net from in a restructured Manchester City side than those at the start of the previous campaign.

Past Performance Analysis

Beginning a campaign so strongly is, as previously stated, not unusual for Haaland. Post seven fixtures last campaign he had netted ten times - four more than anyone else and half-dozen more than Mohamed Salah.

Yet it was the Liverpool forward who claimed the top scorer award with twenty-nine strikes, seven additional compared to the City forward.

This season, while Haaland has started in blistering form, Salah has registered half as many goals and had fifty percent fewer opportunities (xG) than at this stage last season.

Actually this has been the most subdued opening to a Premier League season the Egypt forward has made.

Rivals' Slow Start

It's not merely Salah who has begun modestly either. When examining at the eleven leading goalscorers in the Premier League last campaign, Haaland has netted the same number goals as the other 10 players collectively so far.

Whether due to physical problems - multiple prominent forwards - protracted transfer stories in one particular striker's situation or simply because their clubs have faced difficulties (multiple established scorers), Haaland's likely rivals in the battle for the scoring title have not fired so far.

Continental Scoring Title Battle

Even as Haaland seems the distinct favorite for the Premier League Golden Boot, what about the European top scorer prize that is given to the footballer scoring the most in the continent's elite divisions?

That competition is considerably more open at this initial phase because two elite attackers have similarly opened in great form, with 11 and 9 conversions respectively.

The circumstance Haaland has scored so many times and has the highest xG of the three despite not attempting any spot-kicks renders him the frontrunner.

Yet given that Kane and Mbappe are among the finest finishers in continental soccer in terms of exceeding their expected goals, the race is certainly on.